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Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological – meteorological measurements asymmetry

Abstract : Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley – Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.
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https://hal-cnam.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02467968
Contributor : Yann Pollet Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Tuesday, March 1, 2022 - 5:22:05 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 5:58:50 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, May 30, 2022 - 7:52:41 PM

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Bassam Bou-Fakhreddine, Sara Abou Chakra, Imad Mougharbel, Alain Faye, Yann Pollet. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological – meteorological measurements asymmetry. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 558, pp.255-265. ⟨10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.035⟩. ⟨hal-02467968⟩

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