Impact of booster vaccination on the control of COVID-19 Delta wave in the context of waning immunity: application to France in the winter 2021/22

Paolo Bosetti (1) , Cécile Tran Kiem (1, 2) , Alessio Andronico (1) , Juliette Paireau (1, 3) , Daniel Levy-Bruhl (3) , Lise Alter (4) , Arnaud Fontanet (5, 6) , Simon Cauchemez (1)

1 Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases
2 Collège Doctoral
3 Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France]
4 HAS - Haute Autorité de Santé [Saint-Denis La Plaine]
5 Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology
6 PACRI - Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents

Europe has experienced a large COVID-19 wave caused by the Delta variant in winter 2021/22. Using mathematical models applied to Metropolitan France, we find that boosters administered to ≥ 65, ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 year-olds may reduce the hospitalisation peak by 25%, 36% and 43% respectively, with a delay of 5 months between second and third dose. A 10% reduction in transmission rates might further reduce it by 41%, indicating that even small increases in protective behaviours may be critical to mitigate the wave.

Domaines: Maladies infectieuses; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Alessio Andronico, Juliette Paireau, Daniel Levy-Bruhl, et al.. Impact of booster vaccination on the control of COVID-19 Delta wave in the context of waning immunity: application to France in the winter 2021/22. Eurosurveillance, 2022, 27 (1), ⟨10.2807/1560-7917.es.2022.27.1.2101125⟩. ⟨hal-03518970⟩