Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19

Martin Hoesli (1, 2) , Richard Malle (3, 4)

1 GSEM - Geneva School of Economics and Management
2 University of Aberdeen
3 LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action
4 BNP-Paribas

Purpose The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use data for both direct and listed real estate and further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future. Findings The authors report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by COVID-19, while the residential and industrial sectors have been less affected by the crisis. The authors maintain that the future trajectory of prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation. Originality/value This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mots clés: Pandemic; COVID-19; Commercial real estate prices; Office; Retail; Hospitality; G12; G23; R33; Pandemic

Domaines: Economies et finances

Martin Hoesli, Richard Malle. Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 2022, ⟨10.1108/JERER-04-2021-0024⟩. ⟨hal-03611776⟩